WATCHMEN

There is considerable disagreement on the values of these parameters, but the 'educated guesses' used by Drake and his colleagues in 1961 were:

R* = 1/year (1 stars formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)
fp = 0.2-0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
ne = 1-5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life)
fℓ = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
fi = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
fc = 0.1-0.2 (10-20% of which will be able to communicate)
L = 1000-100,000,000 years (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years)

Drake states that given the uncertainties, the original meeting concluded that N ≈ L, and there were probably between 1000 and 100,000,000 civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy.

edit: oops i copied the wrong blurb but still the chances of 2 civilizations being advanced enough to communicate between solar systems similtaneously has to be pretty low this is based on my astrophysics education i recieved at a planetarium just kidding ive never been to a planetarium

-- Edited by Lion on Sunday 3rd of November 2013 11:30:43 AM

nerd

also it should be 6mil civilizations in the milky way

Putting a number to evolving intelligence is foolish at this point.  There is no accurate way to determine the likelihood of evolving intelligence; the best we can do at this point is guess.

Jager wrote:

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the best we can do at this point is guess.

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 Well said.

What is deemed intelligent? Compared to some civilization out there we could be little more than rabid animals. For all we know they could have come here, saw that we're a mess and left as fast as they possibly could.

Liquid wrote:

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What is deemed intelligent? Compared to some civilization out there we could be little more than rabid animals. For all we know they could have come here, saw that we're a mess and left as fast as they possibly could.

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They probably saw us play PVE, took one look at Zab then got the fuck out as fast as they could.

1. a molten iron core that generates a strong magnetic field, deflecting harmful radiation

2. the existence of super planets in the same system that blocked the worst of debris.

3. the existence of a moon that blocked some debris, but also generate tides

4. active tectonic plates that recycle minerals.

5. the composition of the planet (water, oxygen, carbon, hydrogen, other elements and minerals)

6. a precise axis tilt that provides seasonal changes.